By Brother Saye
After I expose white supremacists and show them that there are more Whites arrested for individual crimes, including violent crime arrests than Blacks, they often realize they can no longer lie, and their new argument is – “But more Blacks are arrested per capita.” Their other claim is that, “Blacks are overrepresented in every crime stat, and that a Black person is more likely to commit a crime than a White person.” In this article, I will expose White Supremacists’ rhetoric and propaganda regarding (out of context) population arguments. I will put the per capita argument into its proper context.
“Per capita is a Latin term that translates into “by head.” Per capita means the average per person and is often used in place of per person in statistical observances. The phrase is used with economic data or reporting but is also applied to almost any other occurrence of population description.” – Caroline Banton of Investopedia
When dealing with crime data, the term “Per capita” is a term used in statistical analysis that means, per person. Per capita is not some magical winning argument against Blacks, or some “trump card” White supremacists can use to win an argument with Blacks.
Before I get into the real crime statistics, let me teach you how per capita is calculated using an estimated population total. There always needs to be a base population total, when you are calculating “per capita.” Per capita is not just a magic word white people can use anytime they want to – Per capita actually deals with real numbers, and per capita numbers are subject to change, as the base population and subject population changes, in each calculation.
How does one calculate per capita?
So let’s say the base or estimated population total is 47 Million…
You measure per capita out of every 100,000 Individuals (remember this)
470 x 100,000 = 47 Million
470 is your working number
You now need a subject population total. What subject are you looking to find out the per capita for? What is the total number for that subject?
Okay…. So maybe we want to know the per capita of how many people can design their own car out of the 47 million base population. So Let’s say 10,340 people have shown that they can design their own car. 10,340 would be your subject population total.
47,000,000 is your base population total
10,340 is your subject population total
470 is your working number
Your subject number, divided by your working number will give you your per capita number.
Using the working number, we multiply the closes number, equaling the subject population total of 10,340 – That number will be the per capita number.
In this case 470 x 22 = 10,340
That means per capita, 22 out of every 1000,000 individual knows how to design their own car
Just to make sure you are not confused
47,000,000 was the estimated total population – The Base Total Population
100,000 x 470 = 47,000,000 – making 470 your working number
10,340 was your subject total – the number we are looking to find out the per capita out of every 100,000 for
Your subject number
divided by your working number
will give you your per capita number
22 out of every 100,000 individuals
22 individuals per capita
Now let’s move on to real crime data and why White supremacists have no clue what they are talking about when they use the term, Per Capita.
Let’s use real numbers from the 2018 FBI crime data arrest tables.
The following are numbers from the Arrest Table 43 from the 2018 FBI data.
Total Documented Arrests
69% Whites 5,319,654 – 27.4% Blacks 2,115,381
Total Documented Volume Crime Arrests
58.7% Whites 230,299 – 37.4% Blacks 146,734
And so on…..
Table 43 2018 FBI – View complete Graph Here
White supremacists will look at the data, and say, Blacks have a high percentage per Capita
What they are really trying to say is that the White avg per capita is lower than the avg Black Per Capita – (which I will address after I show that the Black per capita average is Not high at all.)
Let’s use the current estimated population total in America – despite the fact we should not use this estimated population total for this specific crime data (which I will explain shortly)
The estimated population total for Blacks in America is 47 Million, representing 14% of the total population of in America at 327.2 Million.
The 2018 FBI table 43 data says 4,778 Blacks were arrested for murder
4,778 out of 47 million Blacks is less than 0.01% of the Black population – an important fact to note
Now let’s show the per capita math
47 Million is out the base population
100,000 x 470 = 47 million – So 470 is our working number
4,778 is out subject population
10.2 individuals per capita, out of every 100,000 Black individuals, were arrested for murder.
Now do the math – 4,778 out of 47 million is less than a 0.01% avg. It is literally not a high per capita.
Despite the fact most White Supremacists who use the term, per capita, have no clue how per capita is calculated, they are correct that the data is showing that Whites have a lower per capita (in most of the arrest categories) than Blacks when you calculate the numbers using the current estimated totals in the United States.
But –there is a major flaw in this process, & I would like to highlight and share it with the world.
It is pseudo to use FBI crime data arrest numbers and calculate for per capita totals while using the current estimated population totals in the United States as your base population number. (Very important note)
The reason this does not make sense, and that it is pseudo, is because the crime data turned in by accredited agencies to the FBI (admittedly acknowledges large portions of the estimated United States population is not covered in the data.) As a matter of fact, the estimated population covered in the data is always noted on the arrest data, with the total agencies who participated.
There were 18,586 agencies accredited to turn in crime data for 2018
Here is the source from the FBI https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2018/crime-in-the-u.s.-2018/topic-pages/about-cius.pdf Notice how Agencies are connected to population totals in the chart from the FBI.
Now look at table 43 for 2018, as it shows how many agencies actually turned in crime data at 12,212, and it shows an estimated population total covered in the data – aka – The new population total covered is at 247 Million – not 327 million
What should this tell you?
- The data no longer represents a base population total of 47 million estimated with Blacks, representing 13% to 14%.
- The population percentage of Blacks and Whites, from the data, turned in by the 12k agencies – no longer has an established based population per each race – The new population total covered in the data is established/estimated at 247 million, but there is not enough information to establish a base population per each race.
- Any math showing a per capita totals using the arrest data numbers from Table 43, is pseudo because there is no accurate base number per race, to establish any accurate mathematical foundation to stand on.
- We can give a more accurate per capita account (but even this is a major problem, which will be explained shortly) for the total estimated population in the data – but without the separated racial component. The results would still measure, to what one would consider as “misanalyzed data.”
When we say Blacks represent 13% or 14% of the population – That number is not a stable number that can never fluctuate. Percentages are numbers that can always change, percentages are numbers that derive from real math equations. 14% is a number that exists when one mathematically gets the percentage of 47,841,851 out of 327.2 Million. The 14% does not remain the same when we change the number 47,841,851, or when we change the number 327,000,000 – The percentage is not a fixed number – 14% is a result of those two exact numbers.
White Supremacists often will still try to keep the old percentage of 13% or 14% – while acknowledging the adjusted account of the population covered in the data, even when they know the base numbers are no longer intact. This process is indeed pseudo.
Population estimates (per capita) used in FBI data are indeed inaccurate, and this is mentioned by the FBI in their own data, within the methodology.
The per capita argument used by White Supremacists to justify their anti-Black hate is a weak argument because it is an argument based on misanalyzed crime data, pseudo math calculations, and incomplete crime data, where you have missing data from over Six thousand accredited agencies. They are pretty much using a population argument for data that does not cover large portions of the population, a portion being mostly white populated areas. You can not turn to per capita as a sound argument when the population being discussed is not soundly being covered and soundly calculated per race, due to incomplete and inaccurate data.
Once again we have to leave White Supremacists holding another L
muh per capita